Palm Coast, FL Real Estate Update

Markets Go Down... and Markets Go Up

As of last week, the US real estate inventory could all be sold in about 12 and a half months (if nothing else was listed)...  Going on the premise that "all real estate is local," Palm Coast, FL is beating the national stats!  Our inventory of "single family detached homes" would be gone in about 10 months.  That's an "absorption rate" of 10% per month.

There is, however, a "however."  And the however comes with both a downside and an upside!  The downer is that 58% of the 106 closings have been "distressed" sales.  That is 32% "short sales" and 26% "bank owned/foreclosures."  That's a lot of distressed sales!  In better economic times, these so-called distressed sales were dismissed as rare oddities... and excluded from appraiser's and Realtor's "comparable" reports.  Today, in a mind boggling flip-flop, they ARE the market!  This reality is a huge factor in determining a price for your home.  Hint:  They can't be ignored or dismissed.  They are your competition!

Now, here's the upside of this.  In light of the 58% distressed closings... only 41% of the listing inventory is in this category.  That means that they are selling faster than they come on the market... the "bottom" is clearing itself.  Another "however" looms in our future.  Our good friends, the banks, are sitting on a rather large "shadow inventory."  Empty homes that they don't want to reveal as accounting liabilities to stock holders.  So they sit, unoccupied... with the AC off in the Florida humidity... waiting to be trickled on the market.  (Can you spell "mold and mildew?")  As such, we won't be free of these albatross properties for some time.

Flagler Beach, FL is a bit different.  Prices rose in the boom years even more dramatically than in Palm Coast.  You know what that means... a harder fall!  Currently, there is a 19 month supply, with an absorption rate of only 5%.  As such, local Realtors and sellers are feeling the pinch of appraisals coming in lower than they would like.  That is, of course, unless you are on the buyer's side of the equation!

(These statistics are derived from the Flagler County Association of Realtors and the Navica MLS system, based on activity from 8/10/10 to 9/10/10.  Numbers from the previous 90 day period fall +/- 10% for comparison)