Sunday, December 9, 2007

Real Estate and Football"

What's the "Real Deal" going on in real estate today? Everywhere you look, the headlines, magazines, and news shows focus on "Gloom," "Doom," "Housing Slump," BUT... and it's a BIG BUT (no pun intended)...
... It's truly a "matter of perspective." Take football, for example. How are you enjoying the season? As a Patriots fan, at 12-0, things are sweet. However, if you're a Fin follower, at 0-12, well now that's a little different deal. The Sports Page headlines are wildly different in Boston than Miami, right? How about a root canal? Personally, I don't care for them all that much. But my neighborhood dentist? - He rather welcomes them. "Same - same" for a fender-bender. The drivers? No:-( The body shop? Yes:-) Then there's quadruple bypass surgery. The patient? No:-( The cardiologist? For sure:-) ... I'm guessing you see where I'm going with this. So along comes a recent edition of "Smart Money Magazine."
  • Headline: How Bad Is Housing Slump?
  • Gist of it: "It's official: The U.S. real real estate market has fallen into its worst slump in 16 years."
  • More: Builders are hurting.
  • A little more: Industry stocks are in trouble.
  • Even more: Easy (Translation: "stupid") financing is gone. (Excuse me, but I'm having trouble seeing this as a "bad" thing)
  • Finally: We haven't seen the bottom yet. (That would be the pricing bottom)

The perspective issue? In a nutshell: In most cases, it's not fun being a seller right now. (However, there are a few circumstances where selling could actually be a good thing in this market... but that's another Blog post...) But being a buyer? Where are the headlines: "For The Love Of God... Buy A House NOW... Before It's Too Late" ??? I know this much. When you try to "time the market," you usually lose. We may not be at the bottom, but we're getting close. Take an average house here in Palm Coast. I'd rather buy it today at $250,000, than take a chance at missing the potential bottom of $240,000... and end up buying it in a bidding war at $275,000 when the market starts a turn-around.

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