"Newspaper Readers: Beware! (*DBEYR)"

I pick up the papers - or go to their websites - and I can't believe what I read. "Average property values drop $15,000 in Volusia and Flagler." Man, I just don't know where they get that stuff. I do know that statistics, taken out of context, can be used to tell horrific fibs. Years ago, I taught a statistics course for the University of Maryland (Heidelberg, Germany campus). I'd start the course with the following schtick: "OK, you're in a room with 100 people. 50 of them are new-borns in incubators... and 50 of them are blowing out the candles on their 100th birthday cakes. So, what's the average age of the people in the room?" Now, if you're a stickler for pure math, you know I'm fudging a little, but work with me. They'd stare blankly and then they'd ask, "What's the trick?" "No trick," I'd say. Finally we'd get to the fact that the average age in the room was 50 (ish)... Yet everyone in the room was 50 years younger or older than the "average!" You can't pluck a number from a formula and have it mean much on the street, unless you implement a significant amount of other cogent data. The dominant rule of real estate, contrary to common belief, is not "Location - Location - Location." It's pure "Supply and Demand!" And we are currently in a classic "Buyer's Market" (huge supply and weak demand)... from Maine to Miami and from Seattle to San Diego. It's reminiscent of the plunge of 1989 (except mortgage rates are "way better" now). Just drive around Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Ormond and Daytona and you'll see the proof: Lots of builder inventory with tall grass and signs that shout things like, "Price Reduced," "Builder Incentives," "$1 Gets You In," "Free Boat with Waterfront Home," etc., etc.

We can share many examples that fly in the face of the "$15,000 drop-off" story. Salt water canal homes reducing prices from $900,000 to $725,000... High-end condos from $1,250,000 to $800,000... Builders dropping inventory from $237,500 to $199,000... And on, and on, and on. If you really want to sell... need to sell, make sure you get accurate information and advice! Right now, our market is hurting, if you're a seller... yet sweet, if you're a buyer. It was time - we needed the correction. We did the math last year and deduced that if appreciation rates of the past few years (20% per year!) had continued, the average home here (about $225,000) would be over $1,000,000, within ten years. That would take the $1,000,000 home on the water or in Hammock Dunes or the Ginn developments at Hammock Beach and punch it up over $6,000,000 in the same time frame. Although it sounds heady and fun, it would ultimately lead to local economic melt-down. What am I trying to say? If you want to sell your house in today's market: Get Good Advice! Don't go with the agent who pumps you up with the highest price for your home... or with the one who will work for next to "Free." Demand provable knowledge and experience from your agent. You know in your heart that you get what you pay for and this is a big deal for you. Many call them "commissions," yet the best can look you in the eye with confidence and talk about their "professional fee." They have earned that right over time. So, read the paper, but take it with a grain of salt. It's only a small piece of the real pie. And remember that a street smart real estate professional has the real scoop you'll need to be successful in this, or any other market! *(P.S. "DBEYR = don't believe everything you read)