"First Quarter 2007 - Quick Market Synopsis"

In my first post to this Blog, Newspaper Readers: Beware! (04/12/2007), I eluded to the fact that statistics can be used to support an invalid premise. In other words, they can be mathematically correct, yet realistically misleading. When I use stats to tell a story, I try my level best to implement a three legged stool litmus test: Are they Real? Accurate? Usable? If they are not all three, I'd be disingenuous with my client base. I'd be had, because investors in real estate are usually pretty smart cookies. They can tell the difference between a valuable presentation and a dog & pony show. Pie charts and bar graphs and scatter diagrams are useful tools... if... they truly assist a property buyer or seller to make a good decision. Did you see the movie/musical, "Chicago?" Richard Gere, playing a slick jailhouse lawyer, sings a great song - "Razzle Dazzle Em' " In other words, let's get to court and pull the wool over their eyes! Statistics should not be used to impress, but to simplify. Here are some Real, Accurate, and Usable numbers, from the First Quarter of 2007, to show you what's going on, here in Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, and the area Realtor's Multiple Listing Service (MLS)... (There are a minuscule number of listings which are "Out of County," for convenience, yet they are statistically insignificant to our numbers): Total Number of Properties (All Types) For Sale on 04/17/07 = 7,670 145 Sold from 3/17 to 4/17 ... While 1,082 new properties were listed! 199 Sold from 2/17 to 3/17 ... While 982 new properties were listed! 174 Sold from 1/17 to 2/17 ... While 1,096 new properties were listed! * So, 518 were Sold in the last 90 days ... While 3,160 new properties were listed! * "All Types" includes detached homes, condos, in town building lots, acreage, etc. * This shows that Total (All Types) Inventory is increasing six times faster than it's selling! ****************************************************************************** Total Number of Detached (Non-Condo) Homes For Sale on 04/17/07 = 2,868 96 Sold from 3/17 to 4/17 ... While 542 new homes were listed For Sale! 135 Sold from 2/17 to 3/17 ... While 407 new homes were listed For Sale! 126 Sold from 1/17 to 2/17 ... While 439 new homes were listed For Sale! * So, 357 houses Sold in the last 90 days ... While 1,388 new homes were listed For Sale! * This shows that Total Detached Homes Inventory is increasing four times faster than sales! ****************************************************************************** Of the 2,868 non-condo homes for sale, the Median Price is $289,900. That means that half of all of them are under $289.9K and half are over $289.9K. The actual selling prices are lower across Flagler and Volusia. Median Sold (not asking) prices had gotten to the $225 - $235,000 range at the market peak, but have fallen off to the $210 - $220,000 range... and are continuing to drop. However, the good news "trend within the trend" is that the rate of decline is slowing down. That is usually a precursor to the market "finding the bottom," which is the start of stabilization. The news for condos and building lots is not nearly so encouraging (from a seller's perspective). Just a short while ago, I was doing some work for an investor customer, who had purchased a high end ($1,500,000) pre-construction condo (not yet completed). I had to let him know that there were over 300 high end condos on the market (Hammock Dunes, Hammock Beach, Cinnamon Beach, Ginn's Marina, Surf Club, etc.) now - not to mention the hold on the Marineland project and the mess Centex is dealing with at Palm Coast Resort. Those folks who were speculating in the "buy - build - flip" game, who bought last year, better have deep pockets (or need the tax loss) and the ability to hold them for a while! Typical building lots in Palm Coast have roller-coastered too. In 2001, you could buy them all day at $5,000 - $20,000. By 2005, they had shot up to $80,000 - $150,000. Today, most are falling back to the $45,000 - $60,000 range (at least those that have a prayer to sell). Well, that's it for now. No fancy stuff - just the basics. It's 12:20 AM Wednesday morning... I'm yawning... and Spike needs to be walked...