"Timing the Market"

In my last post (Sunday, 12/9/07) I warned against trying to "Time the Market."

Now why would I do that? If you timed it - and won - you could win big. It's just that real estate "speculation" is not the same thing as "investing wisely." What, then, is speculation? Ever been to Las Vegas? Same thing. Forever and always, the odds are stacked in favor of the house... (No, not the house down the street... the Casino)

So this is just clarification from Sunday's post. The market is similar to a trampoline. Up-Down... Up-Down... in seven year cycles, on average, since WWII. The trampoline's surface stores potential energy. When the market hits bottom, as it's likely to do next year, that restoring force will cause a rebound. The rate of speed at which it rebounds - the "acceleration" - is a function of "mass" (the accumulated conditions that caused the crash) and "force" (the pent up demand of the market)... The greater the force, the greater the acceleration of the rebound will be. And I believe there is tremendous pent up demand. Bottom line? If you try to time the "bottom," you'll be in the rebound phase before you can click your stopwatch. The smartest time to buy real estate? Yeah, you guessed it --- NOW.