Your Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, and Flagler County, Florida... Local Real Estate, Economy, and Useful Information Source
Saturday, May 26, 2007
"Memorial Day - Thank You... So Very Much"
Friday, May 25, 2007
"HS Graduation & Memories of Stanley Jackowski"
Monday, May 21, 2007
"Jacksonville Symphony Visits Palm Coast"
Music under the stars... a gorgeous early summer night... front row table on the football field grass... and an appropriate "Symphony" candy bar in our delicious box picnic lunches. As the kids say, "It's all good." "Picnic and Pops," featuring the Jacksonville Symphony Orchestra was a huge success. The venue, FPC High School's football stadium, was perfect. Normally, the sounds of raucous marching bands and staccato drum lines emanate from this field, but last night it was the symphony, led by their gregarious conductor, Scott Gregg.
Jointly sponsored by the "Palm Coast / Flagler Foundation for the Arts and Entertainment, Inc." and the "Flagler Symphonic Society," the event demonstrated the success being enjoyed locally, due to these organization's efforts to enhance the presence of The Arts in Palm Coast and Flagler Beach. Officers of these organizations include Joe Ganci, Tom Corum, Sam Perkovich, Glenn Grube, and Linda Kuntz , with the Foundation, as well as Mary Stetler, Pam Richardson, Celia Pugliese, and Cornelia Manfre, with the Society. Thanks also go out to the Palm Coast City Council and the Tourist Development Council of Flagler County for their cultural grants, which helped to facilitate this concert.
The music? It was wonderful. Highlights from Gershwin's Porgy and Bess, The Best of the Beatles from John Lennon and Paul McCartney, and a tribute to Duke Ellington were the show-stoppers for me. Our fellow RE/MAX Oceanside Realtor and friend, Sam Perkovich, scored (excuse me, I mean sponsored) a front row table for our office and it was perfect. Sam has been involved with the Foundation for the Arts and is currently a VP for them, as they orchestrate Flagler County's emergence as a place where the Arts will flourish.
I got smarter, too. From now on, when I hear the theme from "Raging Bull," or the score from "Godfather III," I'll say, "Isn't that Intermezzo from Cavalleria Rusticana, by Mascagni, just beautiful?" If you didn't know that, you need to get out more...
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Real Estate Lessons: "Junior & The Budweiser #8"
NASCAR? No, I was never really much of a fan. We didn't do that in
Upstate New York when I was a kid in the 50's and 60's. Not too much in the way of "Moonshine Mystique" in our world. But then I joined the Army "to see the world." And after they let me see Viet Nam, I found myself at the University of Tampa, on a "bootstrap" scholarship.
Now I'd heard of the "Daytona 500" before, but never dreamed I'd actually be in the stands. Being the adventurer, I scored tickets to the race in 1973 - Infield, no less. It was my gift to my father-in-law, a guy who actually co-owned an old Ferrari and rode shotgun in local road rallies. It was our privilege to see "The King," Richard Petty, wheel his #43 Dodge into the winner's circle that day. To say the day was exciting would be an understatement. The Army continued to let me see more of the world... and more car races. How about a Formula 1 race in Monaco? Very cool, indeed.
So, OK, I've got to tie real estate and NASCAR together, right? Here goes... My older (and only) brother is a Catholic priest - "Father Tom," as they all call him. He and I both inherited our father's unusual sense of humor... ( "How much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood?" "Gosh, I don't have any idea. How much?" "Two cords." "Two cords? Why?" "Well, it's just something you've got to know." ) We'll observe something and both start to laugh, while others stare vacantly, waiting to "get it." Back in the 198o's, a famous (or, perhaps infamous) bumper sticker popped up. It read: "Sh** Happens" Well, my brother, the Father, went nuts. After he saw it the first time, he could not stop being amazed by its simple, yet profound message. Surely, it must be of biblical derivation. We'd say it... then laugh for ten minutes... then say it again. We tried to clean it up, by substitution, but "Stuff Happens" just wasn't funny. To this day, some twenty years later, when anything goes awry... we know what to say.
So the buzz in NASCAR this week has been all about Junior (No, he hasn't gotten his real estate license, that we know of). All season it's been about his squabble with Dale Senior's wife - and how he wants at least a 51% interest in DEI Racing. Then he goes and announces he's leaving after the season's done. And does icing make the cake better? Yes. Yesterday revealed that Dale will be docked 100 points and his crew chief will be fined $100,000... for fiddlin' with the rear wing mounts on their Car of Tomorrow. Wow. Sh** Really Does Happen.
As the years have unfolded, I've taken that standing joke and done some fiddlin' of my own. I've changed it to: "Sh** Happens. So What? Now What?" It's my way of acknowledging life's randomness... and then dealing with it. Try it - it works. Junior's crew was like that this week. The team president, Max Siegel, met with them and observed that "Nobody was freaking out. Everyone went into a "What do we do now" mode. It is what it is. It's unfortunate, but we'll move on." I guess DEI read my mind and simply paraphrased, "Sh** happens... So what?... Now what?" Hope it works for them.
Real estate is just like that... whether it's Palm Coast real estate, Flagler Beach real estate, Ski resort property, California, Virginia, or New York... Sh** happens. I've studied this, and on average, markets have cycled about every seven years in the sixty years since WWII. Now we're in a race to the bottom, price wise. Positive spin? The sooner we get there, the sooner we start the climb back up. So we should all do just like Dale Jr. and his crew: Don't freak out. It is what it is. It's unfortunate (if you're a seller) but we should move on...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
"Movin' On Up!"
Monday, May 14, 2007
"Statistically Redundant Statistics"
Friday, May 11, 2007
The Real Estate Wild Card
The Real Estate "Wild Card?" As though real estate hasn't been wild enough for the past 20 months? If you're a seller, you're not laughing, are you? Before I go deeper, let me define "seller," ok? It's someone who really has a need or a strong desire to sell. I always ask potential listing clients, "On a scale of 1-10, with a "1" meaning "no need," a "5" meaning "if I can get my price," and a "10" being a "desperate need," how would you rank your motivation to sell?" If we aren't at "7 or above," they'd need to be blood relatives for us to take them under our wing. It's just a huge exercise in frustration (for them and for us) to do otherwise. Sometimes I feel like Dr. House on the popular new TV series, "House." I know I'm right, but they sure don't want to hear it, if the news isn't what they'd like. Remember ENRON? When it had gone from $20/share to over $200/share, no one wanted out because it was "too good" to get out. When it plunged to $1/share, reality was tough to swallow. Houses are like that (kinda' sorta') as markets cycle. If you bought in 1998 for $200,000 and could have sold in 2005 for $600,000 and now the number is $500,000... that's not cause for bridge jumping.... That's a 250% return in nine years... plus the best tax write-off in town. Sure your closing costs and professional fees will be a cost of 7-8%, but your tax person can find more deductions there... AND you got to live there and enjoy it for nine years. America - what a country. Just like with stocks, once the train leaves the station - and you weren't on it - you've missed this one. The tendency that sellers have is to embrace that $600,000 number like a prom date, as if the market has not changed. (Admittedly, things can be a bit dicey however, if you're the one who bought it for $600,000 in 2005 - and need to sell today.)
Sellers, if you need to sell now, make sure your agent is being real with you. Because the "Wild Card" is coming... and it's a really big deal. If you went to the doctor with chest pains and difficult breathing, and an x-ray "found something" on your lungs, would you want the doc to withhold that, so as not to hurt your feelings? Or would you want the truth and an aggressive plan of action to maximize your potential outcome? No-brainer, right? Then ask your agent to get tough. Pick up the phone and call them. Tell them you want current, accurate data - and a compelling argument for the correct price - the price that will cause you to sell - now. It's not that there are no buyers. Their ranks have not shrunk much more than 10% (as the others "wait for the bottom.") The challenge is not Demand. The challenge is Supply, as inventory has swelled to levels that would take over three years to absorb, at the current rate of sales. As a result, overall prices have dipped negative for the first time since 1996 (see the above chart from the 03/27/2007 Wall Street Journal - Real Estate Journal)
Here's what's coming: Several Hundred Thousand Foreclosures in 2007/2008. That's the "Wild Card." Why is this important to you as a seller? Because this inventory surge is going to push prices even lower. Industry economists (not just one or two crackpots) are predicting a dip of another 5-7% in prices, because of this reality. Just one foreclosure can lower prices in a given neighborhood another 1-2%. Don't let your agent get away with just saying, "We've got to lower the price." Make them prove it. Position yourself wisely. If there are 50 houses like yours for sale, look at the actual "selling prices" of the last 5 to have sold. That's where you want to be. Don't get into the vulnerable mindset of, "They can always make an offer," or, "There's a buyer for every house," or, "If it's meant to be, it will happen." For a ship to reach its port, it first has to pull away from the pier... and sail an accurate course. Ask that your Realtor provide professionally researched data to support their argument. It's what you'll need to make an informed decision.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Want a Career... But Not a Job?
1986 was the year I left the Pentagon and the Defense Intelligence Agency, after a twenty year career with the US Army. I had a great job offer from Hughes Electronics (remember Howard Hughes?) to move to LA. $75-Large to start, plus a nice moving allowance and one of those sweet "guaranteed sale" deals on my Virginia home. But I had had enough of the bureaucracy scene. I knew that I'd merely be trading my Army Greens for a Brooks Brothers suit... and be heading back to the "Puzzle Palace" (the Pentagon) on a regular basis to ply my trade. What it came down to was this: I really wanted to be a civilian again! (Pardon me for the flashback, but that just reminded me of the Drill Sergeant in basic training up at Ft. Jackson, SC. "Good morning, maggots! I'm here to inform you that you are no longer civilians from this day forward. You are now in this man's Army! Which reminds me... I used to really love my Mother, but it bothers me that she's a civilian!" Ha ha, Sergeant, so funny!) So, what did I do? I got my real estate license and jumped into my second career... one that does not pay you a dime - unless you earn it first.
That was way before the Powers That Be came up with that mysterious slogan: "An Army of One." But that's what I had become. Where was my Executive Officer and Sergeant Major and Admin Staff to help me? This is embellished a bit, for effect, but the broker walks in and says, "Hi, new guy. Here's your desk and here's your phone... Good luck, pal, you're on your own!" Ouch! Well, I jumped in with a vengeance... out to prove I could make good at this civilian thing. And I did. I grew my business quickly and by my second year, I had become overwhelmed and, de facto, had become my own assistant. The years that ensued were highly productive, yet chaotic. I'd be at the office by 7:00 AM and often sitting with clients at 7:00 PM. It got crazy. Then I started hiring assistants. And things got crazier. They were usually young and smart and aggressive... and, yes, restless and mobile. I'd train them - we'd get in a groove - they'd move to California. If I'd just seen this book sooner... but then again, if I had, it probably wouldn't have impacted me like it has now.
So what's the fuss? If you're one of the many Palm Coasters and Flagler Beachies who rise early and head out to Daytona, St. Augustine, Orlando, or Jacksonville each day, pumping $90 into your SUV twice a week, and working loyally for a company who will forget you at pink slip time... You've got to read this book: "The Obsolete Employee", by Michael J. Russer... see: www.TheObsoleteEmployee.com to read the review and to purchase it. If you are an employer, read this and jump on the train. Employee? Read it and then maybe jump off! Heck, start your own train... or Limo... or whatever your imagination can stir up! My guess is this book could very well start a revolution. It's all about "Virtual Outsourcing." Remember, less than ten years ago, the concept of "Telecommuting?" Nah, that could never work... right? Well, virtual outsourcing is the new telecommuting. It's a way for bosses not to have traditional employee headaches. And for employees not to have traditional bosses.
Want a mind-popping endorsement? How about this, from Michael Gerber, the author of "The E-Myth:" "Some books are timeless. Others are exactly the opposite; they come at exactly the right time, for exactly the right reason, and perform exactly the right job in exactly the right way. (No, you skeptic, this is not his brother...) He goes on to say, "This book is a brilliant resource... Read it. I did. And it changed the way I think about hiring forever." How about this, from Chris Durst, CEO of Staffcentrix, LLC: "...It shows employees a way to escape the rat race and live their dream working on their terms - when, where, and how they want to." And Dan Burrus, author of Technotrends: "Russer has identified a tremendous shift in the way small business works. This is a leading-edge trend that will eventually dictate who thrives and who struggles in the small business arena." Wow! I'm listening. How about you?
Walking the talk is always risky, isn't it? So here's the deal. Instead of pursuing the traditional assistant model, my partner Maritssa and I, over at RE/MAX Oceanside, are going to swim in the "Virtual Assistant Pool." It will be the shallow end of the pool at first, yet the pool it will be. We will start researching this week and "give it a go." I'll report back to you during the month of July... to let you know how we're doing. I've got a good feeling about this... I'm whistling, as I walk away:-)
Monday, May 7, 2007
"Palm Coast and All That Jazz"
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
"I Blog, Therefore I Am"
Why read "Palm Coast Unplugged?"
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